10-5-13 Severe Weather Chances

We are going to start this off by saying that the severe weather threat today is going to be a lot lower then the severe weather threat was yesterday. Overall the guidance is not to impressive with severe from the NAM to the SREF... 

We do have a cold front that is slowly making its way to the east ..You can see this in the image below:

A stationary front is draped across the northern tier . The main threat with this cold front advancing to the east will be heavy rains . This cold front eventually will pick up what is left of what is still being called Tropical storm Karen which will help to enhance the rainfall..

Parameters today are not all that impressive.. 

Shear is greatest behind the cold front and not really in the vicinity of where the severe weather possibility is today. You can see that back behind the cold front the shear is about 70 knots. So one factor against a higher end severe is the lack of shear out with the cold front ..

Instability of CAPE is not as impressive today as it was yesterday with the range generally in the 1000 + with some isolated higher pockets...

Energy Helicity Index is generally around 1 or below with just a small isolated area in SW Ohio where it is slightly higher. This pales in comparison to what was showing yesterday and to tie in with this Helicity itself is not a factor ...

Which generally means that this will not be a day where we should see any Tornado's. 

The above is the NAM valid in the evening timeframe. 

Dew points and temperatures out ahead of the front will continue to be on the warm side with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s

So overall we are not very impressed with severe chances today and we think that the main threats with any severe would be damaging winds along with the possibility of some hail. 

The above reflects the area where we think will have the possibility for a chance of severe thunderstorms. Again, keep in mind , parameters are not very impressive and neither is the guidance . It would appear that heavy rain is going to be the main threat... This is showing rainfall for the next 2 days..