Real Wx Services: Brief Update On Tropical Storm Karen

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Brief Update On Tropical Storm Karen

Latest visible shot of Karen. We have pointed out the presence of an ARC cloud. We do not expect any steady intensification any time soon as right now the system is undergoing a battle with shear and dry air .
The GFS is the furthest east model...other models are to the west and have a much more sheared tropical system then the GFS.
This makes the GFS at this time an outlier..

However, on the same token none of the models showed this developing as quickly as what it did where it is located..

Shear is decreasing to the NW of Karen but as the water vapor suggests...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/wv0-lalo.jpg
There is a lot of dry air off to the NW. So we will probably see pulsing type convection and it is during these times when some slight intensification can occur.
We are not confident with all the dry air that this could reach hurricane status so at the present time we are still only looking at a strong tropical storm.
All interests in the GOM however should pay attention to the weather over the next few days!

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