December 7th Weather Discussion

December 7th Weather Discussion
It was a nice little snow event that we received yesterday and today we should continue along the pattern of mostly cloudy skies with snowshowers scattered across the region in PA and NJ. Its possible that as the cold front crosses the region that we could have some heavier squalls that could leave additional light accumulations. Further North into the NE around Maine and Southern NE coast they should recieve steadier precipitation. Look for winds to increase thru out the day and for the day to be quite cold. Winds could gust as high as 30-40 MPH with the passage of the front. So any snow that would fall would be blowing as well.
Temperatures look to be in the low to mid 30s from East central PA into NJ. Southern New England Coast in the mid and upper 30s. Interior regions of PA mid 20s to around 30..Mountainous areas in the teens. Interior regions of NY Mid to Upper 20s. To the south of PA...mid 30s to lower 40s and the Mountains of WV might not make it out of the single digits..All and all bundle up and enjoy the weather!

December 6th Weather Discussion and Clipper Snowfall Updated

I had to revise my map. I am not sure whether the revision is a good thing or not yet...but never the less felt a revision will probably be necessary.
It appears to my eye that the moisture is still further south then what was being modeled. I am also wondering if the primary does not remain stronger then any coastal that develops? Aside from these thoughts...the clipper should continue to press off to the ESE ..possibly more SSE and snows should spread into the region on the eastern side of the state of PA by or around 4 PM in the afternoon. I expect the snow to continue at varying rates of intensity ..mainly light to at times moderate tapering off to flurries by 4 PM sunday afternoon.....

Now the question of the coastal. Does this coastal come into play closer to the coast or does it develop a little too late? I believe the coastal will come in closer to the coast but will only effect New England. The snows that we achieve will be mainly from the clipper.

Temperatures look like they will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s across western PA and into western NY. Across eastern PA low to mid 30s and then across southern new england....upper 30s to around 40. To the south of PA temps will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s depending on your locale. These are my thoughts right now as of almost 3 AM.

December 5th Weather Discussion

December 5th Weather Discussion

Today will feature a chance of snowshowers thru the early part of the Day across the Northern Tier of PA into NY state. Otherwise most areas will be partly to mostly sunny...however...colder then yesterday was.
Temperatures look to be in the mid 20s across western PA , upper 20s across central pa...to low to mid 30s else where in PA. NJ looks to be in the 30-40 range along with the southern New England coastline. Further interior regions of NY and the Northeast...upper 20s to lower 30s. To the south of the PA/ MD border the upper 30s to mid 40s at the maximum. Mountainous areas look to be in the low to mid 20s in WV as well as the mountains of New York.
All and all a cold but mainly dry day for most of the region. The calm before the storm? Stay tuned!

Clipper Snowfall Final Map

Will post discussion with it closer to the time !

December 3rd Weather Discussion

December 3rd Weather Discussion...

An approaching cold front will usher in clouds into western PA/Western NY late in the day with a chance of some rain/snowshowers by late evening time. Otherwise all other areas will experience partly sunny to at times more clouds then sun.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s thru out the region. South of the Pa/MD border temperatures will be more in the low to mid 50s. This cold front will be the beginning of much colder air .

November Verification

Being that this map was created with about 8-9 months in advance....I am not going to judge it to harshly. Also, despite the warm temperatures early in the month...it was not a shoe in that 50 % of the forecasted area would still come in below normal. So while not expecting the light blue area to come in so extreme the call for below normal still rang true....

Overall I give this about a B-/C + considering the time frame it was made.....

November 30 Winter Potentials

This is posted late but this was posted on the Accu Weather forums on the 29th already....
Overall I think it was a pretty accurate forecast....As far as here in Allentown PA ...we made it to a high temp of 37 degrees which was about 7 degrees colder then forecasted and ended up with 0.3 inches of snow as well as sleet and some freezing rain.
This all taking place in the month of November which started out warm and above normal with temps as high as 70.
However...the cold arrived as thought it would and overall the month ended in a negative departure of 1.1 (as of the 29th) ....

This is something that i had forecasted back in March of 2008 for the month of november. Verification will be posted tomorrow for the overall departures....