May 4th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on May 3rd @ KABE was 82 degrees . This was well above normal for this time of the year in the range of about 15 degrees warmer then normal.

Today, however, will be like the complete opposite end of the spectrum as a cold front is in the process of moving thru . This cold front will do two things..One it will provide the area with cloudy skies and the chance for some showers. The second thing this cold front is going to do is going to drop temperatures by as much as 20 or more degrees.

You will find that sometimes we use the analogy of a rollercoaster ..well you were just at the top of the hill and now are taking that downward plunge with the cooler temperatures and in some cases below normal temperatures.

High temperatures today will be in the 40s in Northern maine to the 50s along the coast and for the most part the 50s to around 60 will be the general temperature range for the rest of the region.

Another Severe Outbreak On Tap?

With the greatest severe outbreak since 1974 now in the not to distant past as far as weather history..if guidance is to be believed..we could once again be looking at another severe outbreak on tap with the potential to be once again on the bigger side. Now for those of you reading this realize the key word is POTENTIAL. Nothing is etched in stone and details at this point are rather sketchy..

As we all know at this range one of the first things that is going to be up for debate and change multiple times is the timing. We are going to put a time frame on this from Monday the 9th thru thursday the 12th where things could once again culminate and come to an end across the east coast.

So lets look at the latest guidance and see what they are portraying and what may lead to the next potential outbreak..

The first thing that stands out is the southerly flow which is quite strong out ahead of the front. The second thing you notice is when you look at the severe parameters being modeled..

CAPE at 150 hrs on the ECM goes from 500 around the outer periphery to as much as 3500-4000. This covers a large area of real estate.

24 hours later things push somewhat ENE but they still cover a large area.

You can see from the images above which is the 12 Z GFS means that it is along the same lines of thinking and has the trough going neutral negative. Does this look familiar? It should. Not quite the same set up as before but not that far away either.

To give you an idea of the GFS CAPE parameters..

Tremendous lift across the area..

And to give you an idea of the SWEAT index which is the severe weather threat index ..look at 174 hours..

Remember folks with the SWEAT index anything above 400 is possible tornadic atmospheric conditions so we are looking at a large area that is 400-500-550.

So if the guidance is any indication we could be looking at another severe outbreak across the USA and with that we have decided to issue just an outlook area map of the area that could be effected by this if it comes to potential..

Now this should move east as we said so that by wednesday places like Western Pa for example will be in the mix , as well as eastern Ohio. It really all depends on the timing of the front and the trough.

We wanted to get the word out NOW , so that if this does become something more serious ..you have a head start on it!

Stay tuned for more information!

May 3rd Daily Weather Discussion

May 2nd high temperature @ KABE was 70 degrees.

Rainfall so far has been a little slower to move in from the west then originally thinking but never the less that is all about to change with the approach of the cold front and the upper level trough ..Expectation of a weak surface low to develop along the cold front should enhance rainfall from today into wed and also bring with it a chance of severe weather. We issued a map yesterday and at this point and time we see no need to make any changes with the thinking expressed. So for today expect showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west of which some could reach the severe levels.

High temperatures today are going to be quite warm once you get away from Northern New England where it will be in the 50s. From southern New England into most of PA you will be looking at temperatures in the 70-80 range. However once you get to about east central PA into SE PA , south central PA and south temperatures will feel even more summer like with highs in the 80-85 range.

Remember if any severe weather heads your way to take cover in proper shelter until the worst of the storm has past.

May 3rd Severe Weather Potential

What happens when you combine two jet streams together? What happens when you have two troughs phasing together? Combine that with a weak surface low and a cold front and you have the potential for severe weather possibilities across the region.

Latest guidance has CAPE across central and eastern PA in the range of 1000-2000.With that CAPE you add in some lift to the atmosphere in the range of –2 to –6. Factor in a Energy Helicity Index of 1 across South central PA and SE pa and SWEAT index of about 350 and bulks shear of 35-45 knots you then begin talking about the potential for severe weather and the possibility of a few tornados across south central PA into SE PA.

Even though the potential for tornados does exist the main threats will be for wind damage and hail.

So do not be surprised if you see some tornado warnings up across the areas highlighted above. Southerly flow will be out ahead of the cold front with temperatures in the 70s to near 80 and dewpoints in the 60s.

Stay tuned for further information on this severe weather potential!

May 2nd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on May 1st at KABE was 70 degrees which was slightly above normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be a mostly cloudy day across the region with the chances of rain increasing from west to east thru the day with the greatest chance of rain being to the west with the potential of lighter rains to the east.

High temperatures for the day will generally be in the 60s across the region.

This will just be the beginning to the start of the week being on the rainy side!

May 2nd Severe Weather Potential

Upper level trough will continue its eastward progression along with its attending cold front. A MCS tonight will be ongoing..you can see this on the current radar..

The main threat should be heavy rains but with guidance suggesting CAPE of 1500+ across the region and a lower level jet of 40-50 knots suggest that winds would be the primary threat if any storms would develop. If any supercells would develop then we could throw in the possibility of large hail. Soundings from the latest guidance really do not support tornados but they can not always be ruled out completely and in this case an isolated tornado could be possible..

May 1st 2011 Severe Weather Potential

Do to being  extremely sick yesterday we never had a chance to issue a severe weather map for today sunday. When glancing at the parameters that are in place nothing really has changed from yesterday except to extend the severe zone slightly to the east to compensate for the cold front moving slowly towards the east.

Now besides the severe weather to the south west and perhaps in areas of the southeast along the front mondfay and tuesday there should be a return flow of milder air out ahead of the cold front. This return flow will cause rain to extend all the way up into the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. These regions will actually see the most rain AFTER tuesday so this map only covers up until and thru tuesday with the cold front advancement.