Another Severe Outbreak On Tap?

With the greatest severe outbreak since 1974 now in the not to distant past as far as weather history..if guidance is to be believed..we could once again be looking at another severe outbreak on tap with the potential to be once again on the bigger side. Now for those of you reading this realize the key word is POTENTIAL. Nothing is etched in stone and details at this point are rather sketchy..

As we all know at this range one of the first things that is going to be up for debate and change multiple times is the timing. We are going to put a time frame on this from Monday the 9th thru thursday the 12th where things could once again culminate and come to an end across the east coast.

So lets look at the latest guidance and see what they are portraying and what may lead to the next potential outbreak..

The first thing that stands out is the southerly flow which is quite strong out ahead of the front. The second thing you notice is when you look at the severe parameters being modeled..

CAPE at 150 hrs on the ECM goes from 500 around the outer periphery to as much as 3500-4000. This covers a large area of real estate.

24 hours later things push somewhat ENE but they still cover a large area.

You can see from the images above which is the 12 Z GFS means that it is along the same lines of thinking and has the trough going neutral negative. Does this look familiar? It should. Not quite the same set up as before but not that far away either.

To give you an idea of the GFS CAPE parameters..

Tremendous lift across the area..

And to give you an idea of the SWEAT index which is the severe weather threat index ..look at 174 hours..

Remember folks with the SWEAT index anything above 400 is possible tornadic atmospheric conditions so we are looking at a large area that is 400-500-550.

So if the guidance is any indication we could be looking at another severe outbreak across the USA and with that we have decided to issue just an outlook area map of the area that could be effected by this if it comes to potential..

Now this should move east as we said so that by wednesday places like Western Pa for example will be in the mix , as well as eastern Ohio. It really all depends on the timing of the front and the trough.

We wanted to get the word out NOW , so that if this does become something more serious ..you have a head start on it!

Stay tuned for more information!