The above image once again is based off a blend of the NAM/SREF.
What looks like the start of an increasingly wet & stormy pattern is just beginning to get on its way . Guidance is continuing to suggest that it could be a stormy wet period from the region higlighted above eventually moving to the east. By sunday there could be quite a large area of convective precipitation and this could last thru the week ahead. However lets look at the severe weather parameters in place for tomorrow:
CAPE will be anywhere from 500-roughly 4000 depending on your location
Lift Index will be from 0 to -10 depending on your location
SWEAT index any where from 400-500 which indicates that tornadic activity is possible .
EHI or Energy Helicity Index is below:
The areas with the highest EHI would be the best areas as far as tornadic potential. So this would be NW ARK, SW MO, E KS and Eastern OK.
Weather synopsis:
Upper level trough will be ejecting from the western states towards the Great lakes region while one area of low pressure moves northward thru the Dakotas and another low pressure forms along the front by 8 AM over western Oklahoma. Attached to this area of low pressure over OK is a stationary front that extends NE and then bends back NW to the low pressure over the Dakotas. Also a warm front extends to the east and then southeast. Southwestward from the low in OK is another stationary front. Dry line should set up essentially where we have the severe line going thru Tx. This warm front will make slow progress towards the NE.
Meanwhile the closed low that has been plaguing the mid atlantic and northeast will finally begin to move away and this will allow the start of southerly flow from the warm front advancing Northeast to move into the region. This will also result in height rises in what should result in warmer weather and a nice day across the region.
Once again the greatest threat from any storms that develop during the day on saturday will be winds and hail, with isolated tornados possible but not guaranteed.
Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary!
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