Severe Weather Potential May 29th

The above outlook is based on the latest blend of the SREF/NAM.

Severe Parameters across the the region are as follows:

CAPE: anywhere from 500-4000 depending on where you are located

Lifted Index is anywhere from 0 to –8

SWEAT index is highest from Iowa south/southwest into TX. Which is between 400-500

Energy Helicity index or EHI

Looking at the map above for the EHI in tandem with the SWEAT being allocated in the same region-that part of the region should be the greatest severe weather threat with the potential for isolated tornado’s.

The one caveat to this potential is once again over the southern regions where there is some very dry air in place, especially in the 700 MB level. This could act as a CAP to the severe potential in those southern areas. If the CAP can be broken the parameters are indeed in place for wind/ and or hail. So the southern areas even though they are in the severe zone are more the equivalent to a “see text” area and will have to be monitored.

Upper level trough currently located off the west coast visible via satellite (click here)  will move into the Rockies area during the day on Sunday.

Meanwhile guidance is showing a strong jet streak of 100 knots accompanying the base of this trough at that time.

By 00z tomorrow evening we should have an area of low pressure over the four corners region with a cold front extending to the southwest. Another area of low pressure should be over SW Kansas with a stationary front running ENE to a low pressure system over the great lakes. It is this front that the most activity should occur along or just to the north of it. This front will begin to lift north then in the overnight hours and this could provide the opportunity for areas further north from what we have shown to receive some rainfall along with isolated severe weather. However, since that essentially boils down to the timing of a front we have decided to monitor that area.

The main threat from any storms that develop will be primarily wind or hail except for isolated tornado potential in the areas indicated above via EHI. Do not be surprised if it takes some time for storms to initiate in some parts do to the CAPPING in place.

Stay tuned for more information and any updated map in case guidance would change.