The above is based off the latest NAM guidance along with the most recent SREF which is the ensembles of the NAM.
Alright lets start with the parameters in place..
CAPE 500 to as much as 5000-6000
LI is 0 to –10 depending on your location
SWEAT index is below :
The red colors are the strongest colors and would indicate best chances of severe weather.
EHI is above anything that is above a 1 becomes tornado potential.
Current synopsis! Area of low pressure which is currently over the rockies with a stationary warm front stretching from west to southwest down into the Southeast region where it turns into a cold front.
This area of low pressure is anticipated to lift Northwards..so that by tomorrow afternoon it is situated over Western North Dakota.
This will be responsible for starting to lift the warm front further to the North and Northeast.
Meanwhile a cold front extending South/ Southwest from that area of low pressure by tuesday afternoon will start to slowly move towards the east.
By tomorrow evening another area of low pressure should develop along this front in the vicinity of SE Colorado and then this low pressure will start to move ESE overnight tomorrow night.
Across the Tx region ..the elevated mized layer or CAP will still be strong. However…current water vapor imagery :
Shows a pretty strong southern stream S/W should act as a trigger and increase the chances for severe storms across that part of the region. This should break the CAP by afternoon (late) and in combination with day time heating start the return to a more “moist” flow return.
Elsewhere the focal point for severe weather will be ahead of and along the approaching warm front. Today, while being a more active day.. still has the potential to be somewhat slow as compared to what Wednesday should be as the trough finally makes its move and the CAP is completely broken.
Stay tuned for further information
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