Severe Weather Potential May 23rd

 

 

The above image is based off the NAM/SREF ensembles. I have this theory that if something works well, then keep using it We mentioned that today (sunday) was going to be the start of a more wide spread severer weather outbreak and looking at the reports from today so far with just under 6 hrs to go you can see that is definitely the case.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

So lets move on to tomorrow Monday the 23rd. We will do this the usual way by listing the parameters first and then we will move into the discussion on the weather synopsis.

CAPE is anywhere from about 500-4000 depending on where you are located. For those that are in Western Pa (Jen Metz :)) that particular region has up to 1500 CAPE.

SWEAT index as high as 600 and again that is near where the dry line should set up in TX. Other areas across Central into and towards Eastern TN are around 450 . Western PA the SWEAT index is only around 250-300.

EHI is anywhere from 1.5 near the dryline to 2 northwards into oklahoma then an area of 1 stretching east thru central Ark and ENE thru western into central TN.  From there we move to eastern KY with EHI of 1.5-2 into SW  W VA with 1-1.5. From there we have an area of EHI of 1 from Central PA into western PA and then another area of 1 from E Md stretching down to the south into the region that we have marked along the east coast in the severe zone of 1-1.5.

All these areas with the EHI potentially could see Isolated tornado's but we have decided to hold off on the area in red because the EHI while supportive of tornado's , is not supported by the SWEAT index. So we think at this point places like Western Pa for example ..could end up having severe weather in the form of winds and hail but these storms in the red zone at this point and time we do not think will be as severe as the yellow zone. Again it will be a widespread outbreak and we will continue to monitor the red zone for another cycle of guidance and if need be update the map.

Weather synopsis.

Currently there is a low pressure area over central minnesota. An occluded front goes east and then south and then bends back towards the southwest to another area of low pressure over the Tx panhandle. Dry line extends South/Southwest from the low over the Tx Panhandle.  The low pressure over Minnesota will press off to the NE during the day tomorrow . This will allow the frontal system to move every slowly east wards.

Meanwhile another S/W will be ejecting east ward from the west coast and this will move into the OK/TX region. This impulse however will not be the last impulse as this is going to be out ahead of the main trough that is over the west coast. That trough will be slower to eject.

By tomorrow evening 8 PM we will have an area of low pressure over the OK Panhandle and the area of low pressure that was over C Minnesota will have moved off to the Northeast North of the Lakes with the front trailing back  to the southwest thru Northern Indiana and central IL and then extending back SW to the low pressure.

So, all in all, yes its going to be another day of widespread severe weather with the potential for more tornado's if the EHI that is being suggested by the guidance is correct but the worst area for the looks to be central to eastern Ohio . However..we will continue to monitor the latest guidance and update you if necessary!

As my mentor would say..Enjoy the weather its the only weather you got!