Everything Seems To be On Track

Looking over the latest operational guidance it appears as though everything seems to be on track with the next severe weather outbreak. There still remains questions in place that need to be answered as far as how strong will the CAP be and will this temper the severe weather or because of the high instability will updrafts be able to break this CAP?

This is going to contain alot of images to look at..

First thing to notice is the area of low pressure that is off the atlantic coast. This is actually going to act as a block it would seem and keep the warm air from getting this far north until later in the week. Of course this is all dependent on if the European Computer Model has the correct idea.

Guidance continues to show the southerly flow that is building out ahead of the trough to the west.

Now we see that low pressure off the east coast  has started to move away from the area and this allows the warm southerly flow into the region and a ridge moves in before being replaced by a trough

European actually is now suggesting that areas of the east and the northeast could be in for some severe weather with the advancement of the trough and the cold front.

GFS you can see has the same general idea in its ensembles however the two main differences are that it brings the southerly flow into the Mid Atlantic and NE faster then the GFS and its disturbances moving from west to east across the country are better organized.

You also see that they are both advertising the trough to be in place after 168 hrs and in place by 192 hours out.

At this point and time the greatest question is the CAP.The CAP in place may limit storm initiation until wednesday. At this point and time a stronger piece of energy and the Upper Level jet may be sufficient enough to break this CAP.

There could be severe weather as early as sunday and it could be an episode of severe that starts off slowly west (due to the CAP) and then slowly makes its way east and culminates in the east on Friday or Saturday.

As for specifics ..its still to early to say with certainty. All the parameters are in place..High Cape, Negative Lift, SWEAT index, EHI ..what is lacking at the start are limited moisture return… and whether that CAP can be broken.

Its more of a wait, watch and see and as we get within short range it will become more easier to answer!