First off let me start by saying it is good to be back online. We lost internet service for a few days and as of today it finally was restored. During that time we missed some severe weather that had happened and occurred. We did manage to stay in contact with some of the members though via facebook Mobile and or via cell phone.
It appears as if we have come back in just the nick of time and in time for a pattern change to occur. When we had last blogged here we were talking about cooler weather due to a positive PNA, negative NAO and -AO.
As you can see by the above image the NAO is currently around neutral but expected in the ensembles to head towards the positive side. The PNA is currently positive but expected to take a dive into the negative side..while the AO has become positive. What this generally means in the over all weather pattern is that it will begin to slowly warm up in the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. Generally southerly flow will begin to move towards the region and this is expected to start in the day 3-4 range or 72-96 hr frame. This will bring a ridge into the region and warmer temperatures. If the latest European Computer model is correct temperatures could start to warm into the 85-95 degree range over parts of the region.
If we were to have an area of low pressure moving from west to east or from the southwest towards the NE with a cold front..with temperatures like that out ahead that could spell the potential for some significant severe weather. So lets look and see what the models are showing as of 12 Z today.
European Computer Model
You can see what is happening is there is a ridge pushing towards the east with that southerly flow and a trough out west. This is a result of those teleconnections that we mentioned. Knowing teleconnections can really pave the way towards helping you forecast and predict the weather. Lets move on in this run
By 192 hours the ridge is firmly established but now you can also see the trough that is in the central part of the country with a low pressure area indicating a strong cold front moving from the west towards the east thru this period.
Cold front moves across the area and drops temperatures as much as 10-20 + degrees. Now lets look at the GFS..
GFS as well has the same general idea. Southerly flow out ahead of a trough and area of low pressure with a cold front slowly pressing off towards the east.
If these scenarios play out as is..this could set the stage for a long duration severe episode starting in the Southwest and then heading towards the east. The severe weather could start in the Southwest as early as day 3.
As we always say though because we are talking about something that is more then 3-5 days away this scenario can change but as is the southerly flow and warm temperatures with a cold front moving west to east could very easily cause a severe weather outbreak to occur.
We will keep you updated!
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