The above map is once again based off the latest NAM/SREF along with a portion of the GFS.
CAPE 500-4000 depending on your location
Lift index is 0 to –8 depending on your location
SWEAT Index is 450 and this is essentially in the region that spreads from TX north into Wisconsin/Minnesota region
EHI is highest above 1 to as high as 2 from all of Iowa but the eastern southeast portion into central Minnesota and central Wisconsin . This area should have the greatest threat for tornado potential in isolated locations.
Weather Synopsis
Notice the spinning over the Rockies? This is a closed low and upper level trough. The trough will take on a negative tilt and this will send the closed low up thru the Northern plains tomorrow.
Low pressure this evening over the Rockies region with a stationary front extending ENE to a low pressure over southern Canada above Maine. As mentioned this low pressure over the rockies is going to lift off to the NE over the Dakotas lifting a warm front north. While over the NE a back door cold front will be dropping into the area.
The passage of this backdoor cold front could trigger off some isolated severe weather with its passage though it should be mostly a starved for moisture type frontal passage. However, since there is some decent CAPE in place ..along with the day time heating we could see some scattered storms in that area.
Its possible that for the region mentioned above with the highest EHI that a high risk could be needed. Stay tuned for more information!
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