Looking at the severe weather parameters across the region..we are finding some pretty high #s as far as CAPE is concerned when it comes to the NAM 12 Z or 18 Z model run. The map as always is based on a blend of the NAM/SREF and this time some GFS has been incorporated as well.
CAPE is anywhere from 500-6000 depending on where you are located
Lift index is anywhere from 0 to –12 with a small pocket of –14
SWEAT is below:
Energy Helicity Index
So from the parameters above of EHI & SWEAT we could have the potential of tornado’s in those regions.
Weather Synopsis
Essentially across areas of the east we have a subtropical ridge in place and this is providing the region with sunny & hot and dry weather. However ..there should be a couple different closed lows that influence the weather across the area as they move around the subtropical ridge.
Low pressures currently located over the rockies will split. One piece will move southeast and be located over south central KS by 2 AM while another piece of energy moves off to the NE . By 8 AM one low pressure will be north of the dakotas in south central canada with a cold front trailing southwards. It is this cold front that will be advancing east and will serve as a focal point for storms to form in front and along.
Now, out ahead of this cold front is a warm front that will be moving thru the mid atlantic and the Northeast. Parameters in this area are excellent for severe weather ..however..shear is weak and there is not much forcing and moisture return is also lacking with the 700 mb level fairly dry. Any storms in this part of the region will be more isolated and be more related to day time heating. Overnight tuesday night could be a different story but since that would be after midnight we will talk about that in our Wednesday outlook tomorrow afternoon.
The main primary threats from the storms will be large hail and strong straight line winds. However, with the EHI/SWEAT at decent levels tornado’s can not be ruled out.
Stay tuned for more information
No comments:
Post a Comment