Monday, May 2, 2011

May 2nd Severe Weather Potential

monday

Upper level trough will continue its eastward progression along with its attending cold front. A MCS tonight will be ongoing..you can see this on the current radar..

RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_WINTER_ANI

The main threat should be heavy rains but with guidance suggesting CAPE of 1500+ across the region and a lower level jet of 40-50 knots suggest that winds would be the primary threat if any storms would develop. If any supercells would develop then we could throw in the possibility of large hail. Soundings from the latest guidance really do not support tornados but they can not always be ruled out completely and in this case an isolated tornado could be possible..

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