The above map is a blend of the NAM/SREF . Another day where we are pretty much at odds with the severe prediction center. We do not see areas of central and western PA having a severe weather threat at this point in time. More along the lines of garden variety type storms with heavier rains possible.
Severe Parameters:
CAPE: 500-5000 depending on your location
Lift Index is 0 to -10 depending on your location
SWEAT index goes from 500 to 600 from about the location of the line in TX extending into central and eastern Ok up into central and eastern KS. From there an area of 400 from eastern TN in a west to east line to the east coast. These areas once again will be the areas with the greatest potential for tornados.
EHI is as high as 2.5 and that would be from North Central TX into the aforementioned areas as well as SW and West Central MO & NW Ark . So these areas would also be proned to a higher chance of tornados with the Parameters that are in place.
Dew Points in the lower 70s and Shear of 50-70 KT
These parameters in place will be sufficient to bring severe weather potential of large hail , winds to 70 mph and tornados , highest risk, places mentioned above.
Weather synopsis
If you go to the link above you are going to notice a potent S/W trough that is moving towards the ESE out on the west coast. This is currently located over the southwestern part of the US or the southern rockies and it should eject into the plains states tomorrow. This trough ejecting east ward will also cause heights to the east of it to start to fall. This synoptic set up along with a LLJ of 80-90 knots should cause severe thunderstorms to break out along the dryline.
Areas of eastern PA and south along the coast could experience severe weather in the form of winds and hail. However, in PA the parameters are not all that impressive so the greater chance would be to the south. We will monitor this area for any changes. The cause of that potential severe weather will be the day time heating along with a shortwave trough ejecting east from the Ohio Valley area. The greatest threats in the south like TN , KY and points east will also be wind and hail.
Low pressure that is currently over the Northern Tx Ok panhandle will by this time tomorrow evening be located over south central KS. In addition to all the above there is a cold front that is draped from that low that extends to the East and should be moving thru N Central PA and most of the NE all but the immediate coast by about 00z. This could also serve as a trigger for isolated storms into the NE region that are not depicted on this map because at the present time the Parameters there are not too strong.
Stay tuned for more information as we continue to watch and monitor the entire progress of this system. The areas mentioned above for tornados could very well see widespread tornados. If you live in those areas stay tuned to your local media outlets and as always if a storm approaches you with a tornado warning on it seek shelter immediately!
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