The above severe weather zone is based off of the SREF/NAM.
Weather Synopsis..
As the above image shows the upper level winds you can see a trough carved out over the west and a jet streak of 70-80 knots.
An area of low pressure that is in the Tx panhandle is expected to lift towards the North into extreme south western Ks. From this area of low pressure there will be a cold front draping to the Southwest and a warm front west to east and then dropping southeast cutting Kansas in half. This cold front will slowly move towards the east during the day.
CAPE will be 500-4000 depending on your location in the zone..
SHEAR will be 40-50 knots
Lift Index will be anywhere from 0 to –8
SWEAT index as high as 500 which means tornadic activity is possible..
EHI which is overly not that impressive..is highest in central KS where it is above 1. So this region could be the most prone to tornado chance though in reality anywhere along that warm front also could see an isolated tornado.
The main threats however with any storms will be the winds and hail. Tornado’s will be more isolated!
Stay tuned for more information if it should be needed should guidance change!
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