Wanting to get this out as soon as possible . We are anticipating that tomorrow may indeed end up being another significant severe weather day with perhaps a moderate risk to be issued across parts of the region highlighted on the map. Normally our weather outlooks for severe weather consist of a blend of the latest NAM/ SREF. This time it is a blend of the latest NAM/SREF/GFS/ & ECM.
Severe weather parameters are pretty much thru the roof on the latest NAM across Central to Eastern PA. CAPE values of 4000-5000. Other areas cape is 500-4000 depending on your location.
Lift index is 0 to -12 with the most negative over east central PA
SWEAT index is 350 across western PA at 15 Z or 11 AM by 2 PM it is 450 in central PA and by 5 PM it is 500 in east central -NE pa into central NY which could also be included in a moderate risk.. By 8 PM it is back to around 400 in the previous areas where it was 500.
EHI is lower to the west but as much as 1.5 to 2 across eastern PA..
All indications are that there will indeed be storms across western PA that will be severe but they potentially could grow in strength as they head into central and eastern PA and with parameters that are shown , I can absolutely not rule out tornados occurring from central Pa into eastern PA. If guidance is correct with these parameters we could be in for a wild ride tomorrow.
Stay tuned for more information ..we also may issue a new map tonight after 00z guidance comes in!
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