We are going to start this out by saying that the key word here is potential. One of the problems despite the parameters in place is going to be the lack of moisture return. This stems from the 700 MB level being dry, in particular from about OK south. So while the severe parameters are in place this could CAP the region.
So lets look at the severe parameters.
CAPE is 500-5000 depending on your location.
Lift Index is 0 to –8 depending on your location
SWEAT index is 400-500 from E OK into Southeastern and Central KS to NW ARK, almost all of Missouri into Central Illinois!
EHI is above 2.5 in eastern OK then stretching into Central Missouri. So this region identified by the SWEAT and EHI above have the greatest potential ate severe weather including the potential for Tornados.
Weather Synopsis
By 00z this evening an area of low pressure will be located near the OK/TX border. From this low is a stationary front that stretches to the east and then north to another area of low pressure over southern Ohio. This front continues then ENE to another low pressure over SE Canada.
By 18 Z Saturday one area of low pressure will still be in place over OK ..however an impulse will break off and start to move ENE while lifting a warm front across the region. The low over southern OHIO will lift off into Southern Canada just west of NY State lifting the warm front thru the NE. This will bring some “Hot” weather into the NE and even though this low pressure area is weakening with weak instability it could cause some isolated severe reports in parts of the region from PA to Maine.
Overall we are not expecting this to be a very severe potential but rather “a potential” . With the dry air in place it may take till evening time to initiate storms especially in the southern areas of the zone.
Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary!
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