Severe Weather For Monday May 9th And Potential Cut off low!

For the severe weather map up above a combination of the latest SREF along with the latest NAM guidance has been used.

As the map states the severe weather will all depend on whether or not the CAP can erode but anticipating is that the trough along the west should start to eject towards the east. This in combination with the warm front being well established should serve to initiate severe weather.

It is one of those days again where you have all the severe weather Parameters in place but if the CAP can not erode and the upper levels are not favorable we may end up with limited if any convection.

CAPE is once again anywhere from 500-5000 depending on where you reside..

LI is 0 to –10 depending on your loaction

SWEAT index is below

EHI is also below :

The areas with the greatest SWEAT index and EHI would be the areas that have the greatest chance at Tornados.  Again, dependant on how quickly the CAP can erode and moisture flow can return.

Moving on to the discussion about the cut off area of low pressure. Cut off low pressure areas are very difficult for models to determine when they are in the medium to long range. However the signals are there on the guidance with the blocking over Hudson bay ..

That we could be dealing with a cut off area of low pressure that gets more or less trapped somewhere south of the blocking.

The 12 Z GFS has majority of the Northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast into the Southeast under rainy conditions from 144 hours out thru 240 hrs out.

The 12 Z ECM has rainy conditions the same areas from 168 hrs out thru 240 hours out.

The GFS rainfall image for that time period is above. The ECM duration is a little shorter as mentioned so the precipitation amounts are somewhat lighter but its also important to keep in mind that at this time range the ECM does have what is known as a dry bias.

So there is alot that is happening in the world of weather over the next 10 days from severe weather potential to widespread flooding potential to below normal temperatures after this current ridge that is moving west moves off the eastern seaboard.

Stay tuned for more information from the latest guidance!