We have three different areas for severe weather potential outlined today! One in the Northeast, One in the Southeast and one in the south central part of the USA. These severe zones are based off the latest runs of the NAM/SREF.
Severe Weather Parameters
CAPE is 500-3500 depending where you reside in the zones...
Lift index is 0 to -8 depending where you reside in the zones
SWEAT index is 400 or above from east central PA into SNE and then again in eastern OK
EHI is above 1 in SNE area
Based on the parameters above the greatest risk for tornados would be in SNE and then isolated in eastern Ok
Shortwave trough moving across the south will move up thru eastern PA during the afternoon. You can cleary see this S/W and trough on the satellite above.
The South central part of the severe weather will highly depend on whether or not the CAP in place can be broken! So this is really a low risk area however with a warm front developing in the area which will cause warm air advection in the lower levels to break out and in addition to that strong day time heating it may be enough to break the cap. With the NW flow aloft it would appear as if hail would be the biggest threat. Unless as pointed out in E Oklahoma where the better SWEAT is there could be a potential for isolated tornados.
Across the SE into Florida we are mainly looking at day time heating storms with light shear in place of 25-30 knots and some decent CAPE values in place. Also steep lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 could attribute to scattered Severe Thunderstorms that would fade out after the daytime heating starts to erode away!
All and all while we are expecting severe weather in three different areas ..tomorrow will in no way be as active as the past several have been!
Enjoy the weather as its the only weather you got! Be very careful if out and about in the heat . It is very easy to get heatstroke in this kind of heat!
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