June 1 st Severe Weather Potential

We issued this map back on the 28th and we see no reason to steer away from what we had thought back at that timeframe for tomorrow.

That particular days outlook talked about the heat building in on the southerly flow and how the subtropical ridge was going to make things hot out in advance of the approaching cold front.

So lets take a look at the latest severe weather parameters:

CAPE is anywhere from 500- 6000 depending on where you are located.

Lift Index is 0 to –8 depending on where you are located

EHI is highest from about East Central PA into the Northeast where it goes from 1 to 2+ the further north one goes into the Northeast.

SWEAT index is around 400 in the same areas as the EHI is found .

Weather synopsis

Subtropical ridging that is still in place will begin to break down for this forecast period. A trough over parts of Canada is going to move slowly south east into the Northeast. At the same time another trough will be lifting off the pacific on to the west coast. So essentially the weather chart would look like trough on the west ridge in between with a trough into the Northeast.

Meanwhile in response to this synoptic set up a powerful cold front is working its way across the country. If you look at the latest surface map

You will see where this cold front is located. on the map. Now, currently as of today..the front has been relatively moisture starved as you can see on the current radar..

This is expected to change in the overnight hours as we should get more of a moisture flow return.

Generally speaking here is what we are expecting. Showers and thunderstorms should develop between 8 PM and 2 AM across the ohio region into the Lakes  and then they should begin to move to the ESE and begin to move thru western PA from the NW dropping to the ESE thru the rest of the region by wednesday 18 Z.

Because of the SWEAT and EHI in the locations we mention above we can not rule out the isolated Tornado . However, main threat of any storms is once again going to be hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH.

Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary!