The above map is based on the latest NAM/SREF and blended along with the latest European Computer model!
Lets look at the severe parameters across the area..
CAPE is between 500-6000 depending on your location
Lift Index is between 0 and –10 depending on your location
SWEAT index is as high as 650 but there is a broad range of 400 +
Energy Helicity Index or EHI is as much as 2.5 + in some of these same locations where the SWEAT is high.
So, as you can see we definitely have some pretty impressive parameters in place across the Northern plains region.
Weather Synopsis
Low pressure will be coming out of the rockies around 2 AM or 6 Z. This area of low pressure will lift into montana by 12 Z or 8 AM. This low pressure then by 18 Z will be close to the Montana/Canada borderline and be associated with an occluded front. By 8 PM there should be another area of low pressure over Western Nebraska with a cold front trailing to the southwest. It will be this system that will be responsible for the severe weather.
Across the southeast the severe weather will be more scattered with the greatest threats being large hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH. However , areas in the northern plains with the high SWEAT and decent EHI stand the best potential for any tornados.
Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary..
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