June 8th Severe Weather Potential

The above outlook once again is based on a blend of the NAM/GFS/SREF.

We want to state right from the get go here that the areas of the northern mid atlantic into the Northeast while having EXCELLENT parameters will be facing a 700 MB level that is quite dry. This could act to CAP the region so that the severe potential might not be realized or it could be more of a scattered variety. However, if this can be broken then we would be looking at better chances ..So we decided to include them in the zone under the philosophy of better to be safe then sorry.

So lets look at the parameters that are in place:

CAPE is anywhere from 500-6000

Lift index is anywhere from 0 to –10

SWEAT index is 400 + from NE PA into the Northeast and then from Michigan SW into Eastern Ok

EHI index is 1 to as much as 2.5 from NE PA into the Northeast.

So, in a nutshell if we can get that 700 MB level to moisten up there are some very decent parameters in place that would be able to spark off some severe storms. Lets look at the weather synopsis:

Essentially this time period will continue to feature a trough across the west with a ridge from the central part to the eastern part of the USA. This ridge is being responsible for the heat & humidity that has built back into the region. We had talked about this and mentioned that high temperatures could get into the mid 90s in parts of the region.

Keep in mind that the heat can be just as dangerous as severe weather, especially on the elderly. So please keep water nearby as some places the heat index will be near if not over 100 degrees.

Low pressure currently located over NW Minnesota with a cold front to the southwest to another low pressure over SE Colorado. These lows are going to start to move towards the east and the low currently over Colorado will then start to drop towards the SE . This is going to cause the cold front as well to start moving towards the E and then Southeast.By tomorrow evening one area of low pressure will be over the great lakes while the other low pressure area is over the panhandle of Tx with the cold front connecting the two different areas of low pressure.

It appears as the greatest threat with any storms tomorrow will be hail and wind but because of the EHI and SWEAT that is being forecasted we will not rule out the chance of an isolated tornado.

This cold front is going to be slow to get into the eastern part of the USA ..so it may end up being that each day will just have a better and better chance as the trigger gets closer. Until that point and time it will be more due to daytime heating in place that could cause any sever weather!

Stay tuned and with this heat above all-stay safe & if at all possible in air conditioned areas!