The above map is based on the latest NAM/SREF. Lets look at the severe weather parameters that will be in place.
CAPE =500-4000 depending on where you live.
Lift index is 0 to –12 depending on where you live.
SWEAT index is 350-400 from western Ohio into Northern and Central Indiana and eastern Illinois.
EHI is also around 1-2 in these same locations and then another area from Southern Iowa stretching back west southwest to North Central KS and South Central Nebraska.
This would be the regions to watch for any tornado potential. However with the SWEAT index in these locations being borderline ..it appears any tornado’s at this point would be more isolated .
Dew points are in the 60s and 70s across the sever zone.
Weather Synopsis
Low pressure is currently located over SE colorado. From this low pressure system is a complex front which stretches NNE to a low pressure over South Central Canada. Extending towards the SSE from this low pressure area is a warm front.
The low pressure over SE Colorado is going to slowly move ENE and as it does so it will cause the frontal system to move across and thru the Great Lakes.
An area of low pressure is then expected to form over SE Michigan by 18 Z. This area of low pressure will then drop SE and be located over NE Ohio just west of Erie Pa by 00z .
It is this complex frontal system that will drag a cold front across the severe weather zone. Showers and thunderstorms should break out along this frontal system.
The worst of the severe weather should occur from western Ohio and points towards the west within the zone depicted.
All other areas would be more scattered severe such as western PA and could end up with resultant rain showers more then actual thunderstorms as the parameters across that region are not that impressive.
Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary.
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