June 28th Severe Weather Outlook

Pretty much so far , Monday the 27th has been a slower then anticipated day for severe weather. Many would count that as a good thing with the amount that has happened since severe season began.

Many people were talking across the internet that tomorrow , Tuesday the 28th was going to be a very bad day across the east. We just do NOT see that happening and we have NOT seen that happening since the medium range.

Models are not that impressed with tomorrows severe weather chances whether that would be the GFS/NAM/SREF/ECM. The problem we had talked about is first of all the timing of the front and second would be the cloud cover that would be in place to hinder severe weather chances.

If you go to the satellite you can see the low level clouds that are moving towards the area.. click here for satellite

SWEAT across the region is relatively low with only a small area above 400 and that would be in western Nebraska to Eastern Colorado , very small corner of NE New Mexico and the oklahoma/Tx panhandle area. That is about the only region with SWEAT above 400 around 18 Z . By 00z it does go above 400 areas further north in a narrow corridor from the dakotas (western sides) south thru the same areas mentioned above and with western Ok.

EHI does not really get above 1 in any given location

CAPE is about 500-3500 across the zone above

Lift index is 0 to -8 depending on your location in the zone..

Weather Synopsis

Currently there is a low pressure to the north of the great lakes and from this low pressure extending from this low is an occluded front with a warm front extending south and then to the east that will be making its way across western PA by about 2 AM. This warm front then extends to the east to the south of PA ..actually south of MD. Low pressure also just west of west TN and this is connected to a cold front leading to the low further north and then to another low back off to the southwest over North central Tx.

If you remember from a couple days ago when we put the discussion out for the 72 hr period we mentioned timing of the fronts. There just is not going to be that much time between the two fronts. For example:

Warm front lifts thru western PA between 6 Z and 12 Z and in Eastern Pa it lifts thru between 12 Z and 18 Z and then stalls north of ABE over NE PA. Meanwhile the cold front comes thru between 12 Z and 18Z in western PA and in eastern PA it is already approaching by 8 PM. So there is not that much time in between for day time heating to occur and then factor in cloud cover with convective debris overnight it appears that the best bet for locations like PA from west to east will indeed be some scattered showers and garden variety type storms with just isolated chance at a severe storm with hail or wind.

We have not been impressed for days and that thinking has not changed any!