The above map is once again based on a blend of the NAM/SREF. Lets take a look at the latest parameters:
CAPE is anywhere from 500-6000 depending on where you reside.
Lift Index is 0 to –10 depending on where you reside.
SWEAT values are posted above. EHI is highest over the upper part of MI stretching back towards Iowa and then another pocket of above 1 in Montana .
Weather Synopsis
An upper level low is going to be moving across the west while this occurs the models are showing a strong jet max of 65-75 knots that will overspread the 4 corner regions.
Meanwhile by 12 Z or 8 AM in the morning there will be a frontal system with one low pressure over NE North Dakota to another low pressure over montana. With another low pressure over Central South Dakota. Extending from this low pressure area is a warm front that extends to the ESE to a low pressure that will be located just south of Cape Hatteras. This low pressure area located over South Dakota will start to move east and this will begin to push the front towards the ENE. The low pressure should be over SE Minnesota by 8 PM.
The regions above with the highest SWEAT and the highest EHI stand the best chance at seeing some tornadic activity –otherwise the severe threats will be limited to large hail and winds in excess of 60-70 mph.
Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary!
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