National Hurricane Center has two different areas that they are watching. The first one crossed over Florida today and is now in the GOM and moving towards the WSW.
Currently we have a subtropical ridge that is in place and you can see that very well on the steering current image.
This is why the AOI or Area of Interest is moving off towards the WSW because it has to move underneath that subtropical ridge.
There is a look at the latest satellite and you can clearly see that WSW movement.
The above map is a wind shear map. While shear for thunderstorms over land is a much needed ingredient –shear over the ocean is harmful to any tropical systems that may try to develop. These images will be showing up more and more as we have tropical season underway..
While shear is not really an issue with the disturbance in the GOM it is actually going across an area that has low TCHP as this image will show:
The higher the # on the colored scale graph the better the available heat potential (TCHP) for the disturbance to tap into. You generally want to see it travel across an area at 80 or greater and this appears to be going north of the best TCHP area.
Right now its a fairly weak area of low pressure at around 1015 on the pressure scale. The chances of this developing into anything other then a depression are pretty small. There is currently no spin indicated on the satellite which means there is no LLC or lower level center. We will continue to watch this but it will pose no threat to the US.
Next up is the 2nd AOI which is down to the south. Currently this also is in a very unfavorable area for development. If you look at the shear image above you will see that there is a large area of shear which is 40-70 knots to its north and northwest. Though this system is nearly stationary if it were to move into that greater area of shear it would not be able to develop. The fact that it will remain stationary does give the potential for the shear to subside.
This map is the shear tendency map and it shows you that to the North and the Northwest of this system the shear is actually increasing. The orange red colors indicate increasing shear.
So at the present time with both these systems neither one of them are under what would be considered favorable conditions. However, we will continue to monitor the situation and keep you informed.
Tropical season is exciting and contains many updates. It is perhaps our busiest time of the year depending on the amount of systems.
Stay tuned for more information and unless things should change this will be updated 24 hours from now!
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