The above outlook is based on the latest NAM/SREF and GFS, Lets look at the severe weather parameters...
CAPE is 500-4000 depending on where you live...
Lift Index is 0 to - 6 depending on where you live
SWEAT index is above 400 in eastern Kansas into Central and Eastern Missouri
EHI is above 1 in central and eastern Missouri
Low pressure is currently north of the Great Lakes. A complex frontal system is associated with this low pressure and currently a cold front is in the process of cross Eastern pa. This cold front drapes south and then back towards the west and turns into a semi stationary front with a low pressure over the Tx/Ok Panhandle. It will be this front that will serve as a trigger for the potential for severe thunderstorms. However there will also be another frontal system dropping SE ward from the Canada while the low pressure /trough moves eastwards.
The main threats appear to be large hail and wind though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out in the Missouri region.
Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary..
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