The above image is based on the latest NAM/SREF.
We started talking about this several days ago in the medium range time period. We talked about the return of southerly flow heading into and towards the Northeast. This is occurring as we are typing with temperatures having returned back into the mid 80s. We also talked about the potential for severe weather with a cold front crossing thru the region.
So lets look at the severe weather parameters that are in place.
CAPE is anywhere from 500-5000 depending on where you are located.
Lift Index is anywhere from 0 to –12
SWEAT index is anywhere from 400 to greater then 500 ..starting from NE Ohio into Michigan lower and upper, extending back west towards Central Minnesota and then stretching back covering a large areas southwest into eastern and central Ok.
EHI is 1.5 above located in North Central and NE PA , NE Ohio, All of MI but southern , Northern Wisconsin, and Northern Minnesota. It is these areas covered by SWEAT & EHI that would have the potential at isolated tornado’s.
Weather Synopsis
Low pressure over Montana this evening. Extending to the east is a occluded front on a west to east basis towards central wisconsin. A series of shortwaves or pieces of energy are going to be moving out of the great basin area. Low pressure on Tuesday will begin go move ENE so that by 2 PM it is over Eastern North Dakota. Extending south from that area of low pressure is a cold front and that cold front extends to another low pressure that will be located over western KS with the cold front extending southwest from there.
The severe over the Northeast part of the region will be more or less associated with the daytime heating and the high instability levels that are going to be in place.At this point and time this region seems to be under concern for mainly hail and or damaging winds. There could be an isolated tornado in those locations however with the higher SWEAT and EHI.
Stay tuned for more information should it become needed!
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