The above outlook is based off the latest NAM/SREF . Lets jump right into it.
CAPE is 500-5000 depending on where you live.
Lift index is 0 to –10 depending on where your live.
SWEAT is below :
EHI is above 1 from western KY to Western Tn to Central TN and then from Southern Missouri to NW Ark to Eastern Ok.
Shear will be 25-40 knots across the region
We have been talking about multiple pieces of energy that will be ejecting from the west into the midwest and plains region. The ridge that has been in place will flatten and begin to push eastwards..
Low pressure is located over Northern Va ..Meanwhile there is also a low pressure over Eastern nebraska with an occluded front stretching northwards and then west to a low pressure over South West Central Canada. Extending from that low pressure area is a stationary front that stretches to the east to a low pressure that is over SE Canada to the north of NY State. This low pressure will begin to move east across southeast Canada and what this will do is begin to drop a cold front into the Northeast during the day tomorrow. This could provide showers and perhaps even isolated storms Northern New england into Southern New England.
Meanwhile, elsewhere , the low pressure over Eastern nebraska is going to lift to the ENE and be over Iowa by 18 Z or 2 PM with a cold front extending south to another low pressure that will form over Tx. By 00z or 8 PM the low over Iowa will begin to drop to the southeast. The CAP in place over TX should begin to weaken with the development of the low pressure and showers and thunderstorms should break out in TX into Eastern Ok.
Stay tuned for more information if it should become necessary!
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