Currently we have a low pressure over CT. From this low pressure extending back west is a warm front, semi stationary to a low pressure over Wisconsin. Trailing from this low is a cold front which then turns into a warm front as it trails back west to a low pressure over the TX/OK panhandle. By afternoon the cold front will be approaching western PA.
Once again the models are not to impressed with the severe weather chances especially with areas along the east coast. It is these frontal systems that will be responsible for showers and thunderstorms developing.
So lets look at the severe parameters
CAPE is 500-3000 depending on where you live
Lift Index is 0 to –6 depending on where you live
SWEAT index is highest again in Western TN into NE Arkansas at around 400, and then back over E Montana
EHI is above 1 from all of TN into South Central KY and then along the carolina coastline.
All and all we are not anticipating a potent severe outbreak. The timing of the front across places like western PA for example will probably limit that area to getting some NON severe thunderstorms and rain in the morning hours.
With activity expected to move across the region in the overnight hours ..once again this could put a hinder on the severe weather probabilities!
Stay tuned for more info
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