We are soon to close out the month of June and to date we have not had one named Tropical system. While this is not unusual per say it is a slower start then I would have liked to see. Perhaps one reason why it’s a slower start is because of the SAL or dry air across the waters.
You can see coming off the coast of Africa there is a huge amount of dry air. This makes it difficult for tropical systems to develop because they are not able to breathe.
Never the less we have an AOI (Area of Interest) that the National Hurricane Center has put at a 20% chance on development over the next few days. So we are going to take a look at that and see what current conditions are like.
Presently it seems like the center of this system is pretty far south and it is over land. So with it being over land this really puts a hinder on any development anytime soon.
The above is a current wind shear map and you can see that this AOI is in an area of about 20-30 Knots of shear. Shear this high is not conducive to development..
This image above is the shear tendency map. And as you can see right now this AOI is not in an area of declining shear but an area of increasing shear. So again, we feel that this will keep this system from being able to develop anytime soon.
Convergence around the system is pretty marginal as the center seems to be located in between the best areas of convergence and divergence is not favorable either at this time.
Finally, the current steering winds would suggest that this system should head off towards Mexico and not the USA.
So at the present time we think that this system would be slow to develop if it will develop at all. Some other factors to take into consideration is if you look at the shear tendency map you see a high increase of shear in the USA over the central part of the country. This is associated with the cold front that is dropping to the southeast. So as that cold front drops to the southeast that shear is also going to be pushing to the southeast and that could just continue to prolong the present high shear across the AOI.
So presently we are placing this at only a 5%-10% chance of developing.
We will continue to monitor this for any future development.
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