The above is the latest water vapor loop for invest 94 L. Our thinking from yesterday has not really changed to much and current conditions are actually showing the environment not getting any better over the least 12 hrs for development.
Now, granted, dry air is not a hinder to this system any more.
However, there are still several things against this system from developing any time soon ,IF, at all. First the shear is now as of 12 Z 20-30 knots.
Second, 94 L is outside of the best area of convergence and divergence.
On top of all this , 94 L has become even more broad in size. Remember yesterday we talked about how this had to either tighten up and pull the convection under it or it had to redevelop underneath the convection. We will still keep the chances of development at 30 %. However, because of the scenario described above any development would be slow to occur and within the next 24-48 hours things will become more unfavorable for development!
We will update this 24 hrs from now if needed!
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