The above map is based on a blend of the latest GFS/NAM/ECM & SREF (15Z) .
Severe Parameters are as follows:
CAPE =anywhere from 500-4000
Lift Index = 0 to –8
SWEAT index 400-500 from Iowa into Wisconsin into SE Minnesota and also stretching into the Northwestern half of Illinois.
EHI is also high at 1.5-2.5 in this same general location
SHEAR will generally be 35-50 knots
Weather Synopsis
During this time period southerly flow will begin to advance towards the Northeast and the ridge will be firmly in place across the great lakes region.
Currently low pressure over North Dakota is associated with an occluded front. Cold front trails to the southwest from this low pressure to another area of low pressure located over Utah. This cold front is going to be moving east southeast so that by 18 Z or 2 PM one area of low pressure will be over southern Minnesota with the cold front trailing to a low pressure back over southern colorado and then southwest from there.
It is this cold front that will be moving into the above severe parameters that will trigger the severe weather potential. With the helicity values that guidance is suggesting and the LLJ strengthening it would not be surprising to see some tornado’s break out in the region highlighted above by the EHI and SWEAT.
Across the southeast ..very moist air mass will be in place with the upper level ridge in place. Anything that occurs in this area would be more scattered and would mainly consist of hail and winds.
Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary!
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