The above outlook is based off the latest NAM/SREF. Lets look at the severe weather parameters that will be in place and then we will talk about the weather synopsis.
CAPE-500-4000 depending on where you reside
Lift Index- 0 to – 8 depending on where you are located
SWEAT index is 400-500 + in a large area from Oklahoma then North and Northwest back into Montana.
EHI is at 2 or above in Kansas.
Places where the SWEAT index is above 400 can indicate the potential for tornado’s, however, perhaps the most concentrated potential would be where the SWEAT coincides with the EHI and this would be located in Kansas.
Low pressure is located above Erie, PA over the Great Lakes ..from this low pressure extends a warm front to the ENE into the Northeast region. A cold front extends southwest from this low to another area of low pressure located over Southeast Colorado.
This cold front will be sinking SE ward overnight and should cross the Eastern Part of PA by about 2 PM or so. Now, due to the timing of this cold front this may once again limit the severe potential across SE PA & also the cloud cover currently in place may also limit that potential. Areas further to the south it will be this cold front that will be crossing the region into a warmer air mass that may cause some severe thunderstorms in that region.
Stay tuned in case further information will be needed!
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