June 26th Severe Weather Outlook & Further Thoughts!

Alright we are going to walk you thru here what we think is going to happen over the next couple days. And we will follow this post up with the severe outlook for tomorrow.

First off lets look at the current synopsis as of 18 Z. Low pressure off the coast of Maine with a cold front off the coast and then it trails back west to a area or low pressure over the Ok/Tx panhandle. This front draped across the south is being a focal point for some showers and thunderstorms along it. We had talked about this last night for todays outlook.

Over the next 12 hours or so this cold front that is off the coast is going to become stationary. And the low pressure over the OK/Tx panhandle area will move slowly east. At the same time there will be another area of low pressure that is currently over Eastern Wyoming that will begin to move east as well across the northern plains over the next 24 hrs.

So by tomorrow evening we have one area of low pressure now located over South Dakota with another low pressure over central Kansas. The stationary front will extend to the east from the Kansas low and another area of low pressure will develop over the Southeast over GA with the stationary front going along the east coast.

Now by 8 AM monday morning here is what should be occurring. The low pressure that is over South Dakota is going to begin to drop to the east south east and should develop a warm front extending east towards KY with a cold front to a low over South Central Ks. This will cause showers and thunderstorms to break out across parts of the region. Along and east of the front.

Now, by monday night we should see low pressure over Northern Indiana and a warm front will start pushing into PA..and a cold front extending to the south and southwest back to an area of low pressure over Northern Ok and the cold front continuing west to another wave over NE New Mexico.

There will probably be an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front entering into PA overnight monday but we are not expecting anything severe at that time. Just garden variety.

Now here is how we think its going to look on tuesday morning. High pressure should be located off the Northeast coast with an area of low pressure above the great lakes and from that low an occluded front with a cold front branching off south and then southwest and a warm front running from NW PA south southeast into SE PA and off the coast thru central NJ. There should be a low pressure over Southern Missouri and another low pressure over Ok all attached to that cold front.

This cold front should be well thru the east coast by Wed morning.

There is a lot of talk about severe weather in the east on Tuesday. Problem with that is that right now it appears as the warm front is going to have a hard time making it into the Northeast. The way it is progged now by guidance is the warm front would not be coming across the area until between 2 PM and 8 PM with the cold front following and thru the region by wednesday morning.

Essentially what this means is that there is not going to be much time between the passage of the warm front and the passage of the cold front and guidance is suggesting that there will be showers and thunderstorms with the passage of the warm front. So this likely will not leave enough time for sufficient day time heating to occur before the cold front moves thru.

So what should start out on Monday as a decent severe weather episode in the Midwest into the Southeast ..will not be able to acquire the same vigor into the mid atlantic/NE region if the guidance is correct.

So with the above all out of the way and what to anticipate over the next couple days lets look at the severe parameters for tomorrow.

CAPE will be 500-6000 depending on where you live!

Lift Index will be 0 to – 8 depending on where you live.

SWEAT index will be 400 or above from the Southern  part of MN to SE South Dakota thru most of Iowa to all of Missouri, NW Ark, to Central & eastern Neb, KS and OK.

EHI is above 1 and as high as 3 from mainly Central & Western Iowa to NW Missouri to Central and Eastern Nebraska, It is these areas with the highest EHI and the higher SWEAT combination that have the higher risk of tornado potential.