Starting off with the severe parameters in place across the region highlighted above:
CAPE is actually pretty impressive with ranges of 500-6000
Lift index is 0 to as low as –12 depending where you are
SWEAT is as high as 550 basically across the eastern half of north and south dakota into Minnesota
EHI index is as high as 3.5 and this covers the above same areas as the SWEAT and it also extends into the northern half of Iowa
Weather Synopsis
Low pressure currently located North of NY state in SE canada. From this low is an occluded front with a cold front off the east coast that then turns into a warm front that heads back west before heading north to a low pressure to the North of eastern Montana..in Canada.
Meanwhile a shortwave trough will be moving out of the rockies towards the Northeast . While at the same time another low will be dropping southeast from Canada. The same low that is currently just to the North of Eastern Montana.
Any severe weather that occurs we think will occur towards evening.
A hinder to the severe potential as well, despite the excellent parameters would be a CAP across the region. This is why we think it may take until evening time for severe weather because it will take low level heating to break the CAP.
Greatest threats will be large hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH..though with the SWEAT and EHI combination above we can not rule out a tornado or two in those locations.
Stay tuned for any further updates should it become necessary!
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