Invest 95 L

Since yesterdays update conditions surrounding the tropical wave have vastly improved. There are still a couple issues and we will point them out as we go along here.

First on the conditions that have improved. The wind shear has dropped to 10-20 knots which is workable for development. Ideally , you would want to see the shear drop into the 5-10 knot range.

Convergence and divergence have also improved as the COC (center of circulation ) is in decent convergence and divergence.

Those are the improvements that have taken place over the last 24 hours or since the last update. National Hurricane center has this at a 50% chance of developing to a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hrs.

Now there are a couple issues that we can see ..first of all when you look at a satellite loop of the invest it appears that there could be multiple circulation centers. This makes sense when one looks at the vorticity

System remains very broad in size. This has actually over the last three hours become more broad in nature. This could be attributed to the next problem that we for see..

While shear is decreasing and convergence and divergence is more favorable..dry air is on the increase and getting pretty near the center. This could be why the system is becoming more broad in nature because its starting to take on some dry air.

So the two main things that are working against this system is the dry air and its broadness in size. The larger the system the more difficult it becomes to tighten up its circulation and in this case “multiple” circulations.

Because of the problems mentioned above we can not agree with the National Hurricane Center and we would put the chances of this developing in the next 24-48 hrs at 30%.

As far as movement the system should continue to move off to the WNW as it will follow the steering currents. We feel at this present time that this will pose no threat to the USA but would pose a threat to Mexico.

Whether this develops or not it will still provide some heavy rains and squally weather in the locations where it does indeed impact.

We will continue to watch this and update as needed!