The above map is based on the latest NAM/SREF. Lets look at the latest severe weather parameters off the guidance.
CAPE is 500-4000 depending on where you are located
Lifted Index is 0 to – 8 depending on where you are located.
SWEAT index is below
EHI is also below:
The areas above that coincide with the greatest areas of EHI and the greatest areas of SWEAT are the areas that stand the greatest potential of tornados.
If you look at the latest guidance you are going to notice that we are getting into a different weather pattern. For the past several days to two weeks there has been a persistent ridge across the south , central and into the east. This pattern is changing and we are entering into a period where the ridge is going to relax and because of this we are going to have one disturbance after another moving from the pacific Northwest to the mid atlantic/NE region.
If you look at the above satellite image in motion you are going to see the first disturbance is currently over the rockie mountain region and this is the first trough and low pressure wave that will me making its way from west to east.
By tomorrow afternoon there will be a low pressure area over E KS and with a warm front stretching to the east to another low pressure area over southern south carolina. A cold front stretching back to the west south west from the low over Ks.
While this area of low pressure and its attendant trough will be responsible for triggering the severe weather chances we will also have pieces of energy dropping SE out of Canada that should also enhance the activity.
Besides the normal wind and hail damage and the areas above pointed out for tornado potential ..there is also going to be the threat of very heavy rains that could cause flooding in some regions.
Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary!
We may issue a map later tonight before 2 AM for the area that has the greatest potential for severe weather!
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