The following discussion and outlook is based off the latest SREF/NAM.
AS usual we are going to take a look at the severe weather parameters that are in place across the severe weather zone.
CAPE is anywhere from 500-4000 depending on where you live
Lift Index is anywhere from 0 to –10 depending on where you live.
SWEAT index is 400- 500 in Iowa and into Eastern Nebraska
EHI is also at 1 or above in those same general areas. These areas could see the risk for some isolated tornado’s otherwise the main threat of severe will be large hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH.
Weather Synopsis
Low pressure at 00z this evening will be located just to the NW of Erie PA .Extending and pushing towards the east is a warm front that is oriented from north to south. From this low pressure a cold front is extended from east to west back to a low pressure over Western KS. This cold front will be crossing the state of PA and heading southeast during the overnight hours and thru the early part of tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will break out along and ahead of this front. Once this front moves thru the region the severe weather chances will taper off!
Stay tuned for more information!
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