Tuesday, June 14, 2011

June 15th Severe Weather Potential

The above map is based on the latest NAM/SREF. Lets take a look at the latest severe parameters and then we will take a look at the weather synopsis!

CAPE is anywhere from 500-5000 depending on where you are located

Lifted Index is anywhere from 0 to - 10 depending on where you are located

SWEAT is above 400 from Tx into Southern OK and Central Louisiana. Then another area from Southern Ohio into Eastern Ky and Tn.

Energy Helicity Index is above 1 from Northern Alabama stretching north thru central TN and into central Ky towards the Ohio /SE indiana border putting extreme SE Indiana in the same category as well.

The above area would be the greatest potential for isolated tornado's.

Weather Synopsis

Low pressure over the KS/Arkansas border with a front stretching to the east to an area of low pressure near southern south carolina. A cold front extends from the low near the KS/ARK border southwest to another low pressure area over the Tx panhandle. With the front extending southwest from that low pressure.

The low pressure near the KS/ARK border is going to be moving off to the ENE thru out the day tomorrow which is going to be in Northern Indiana by 00z or 8 PM and as this low moves it is going to push an occluded front off towards the ENE while dragging a cold front thru the area from OK north!

Showers and thunderstorms will break out along this complex frontal system.

Stay tuned should more information be needed!

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