Some clarification Needed On Hurricane Outlook

It has recently come to my attention that some people are misunderstanding things that have been said in my Preliminary Outlook for the Hurricane season. First I have the hurricane season mentioned as May thru the end of November..

Weather fact if you look at the chart above…you can see that the named systems are really low at the May 1st marking but start to climb more as we get towards June. Of course this is based on averages over a set period of time but this is why I state May thru the end of November.

Matter of fact if you want to get technical Tropical cyclones or hurricanes can occur any time thru out the year.

For example: March 7 1908 the Atlantic had a hurricane…Dec 31 , 1954 also had a Hurricane Alice.

So , as you can see from above people are very misinformed when it comes to the weather and if they do not know weather history and facts they should study the subject a little more diligently before they say that we do not know what we are talking about.

Now the next matter of clarification also comes from the preliminary outlook and it’s a matter of people not understanding what was said and why..

This was stated in the outlook…

“.this latest winter was still acting more like an El Nino ..then La Nina “

This apparently has caused confusion.. First of all lets look at what a La Nina winter typically is ..

Notice the La Nina winter and how it shows temperatures being warm from about PA south into the south Central region? Well lets look at the actual results from the winter..

Wow do you think that looks warm? Does that temperature profile look like a La Nina across the region from PA and south into the south central area? Not at all its much closer to an el nino look where they have equal chances in that region.

So now look at that statement above again. This past winter did indeed verify more like a El Nino temperature profile wise then a La Nina but that is not the same thing as saying:

1. This past winter was an el Nino. Simple fact is that I started off saying that we were in a La Nina..

2. This does not mean that every characteristic of the past winter was like an El nino. Simple fact was this discussion actually started on a weather forum and I incorporated that statement as an example , but those who followed the discussion knew it was referring to the temperature profile only.

Further more for clarification of how the hurricane outlook was derived we looked back thru history to winters of the year before active hurricane seasons that were El Nino that transitioned to a La Nina. In the case of referencing the hurricane outlook and winters that means for example:

Winter 2009-2010 was an El Nino winter that transitioned to a La Nina Summer. Very cold nation wide winter..which was followed by a above normal Hurricane season. So we went back thru hurricane history and looked for the same type of pattern in the past which occurred during + AMO years  and negative PDO phase and came up with a list of years and then based the forecast off of that.

Simple fact is when you are in a + AMO phase you have more active seasons and its been a working theory that we have been using here that the winter before ties into the following hurricane season.

So, while it may be a theory being tested and not something tried and true –the end results will not be known until after this hurricane season.

This is why if you do not understand something because of lack of weather knowledge or just not understanding what is being talked about to ask the person that wrote the discussions before saying an outlet does not know what they are talking about!