The above outlook once again is based off the latest NAM/SREF blend. We are going to take a look at the severe weather parameters in place and then we are going to take a look at the thinking behind the map.
CAPE is anywhere from 500-5000 depending on where you reside across the area.
Lift index is anywhere from 0 to - 8 depending on where live in the zone area.
SWEAT index is highest at 400 or above from TX (Cati K) thru ok in Missouri and Eastern Kansas and Eastern Nebraska..
EHI index is above 1 and basically covers the same areas as above but we stretch the area into Southern Iowa, Southern Indiana and Southern IL.
While the area in TX/OK have these high SWEAT and EHI indexes they are going to essentially be CAPPED in the 700 MB level due to being very dry! So while we have included them in the severe weather Zone that really is only if the CAP can be overcome and we can get some moisture return!
Weather Synopsis
Currently there is a low pressure area located over MI with a complex frontal system that goes east and then SW to a low pressure over South Carolina. From that low a front trails back to multiple pieces of energy over the rockies. This low over MI is going to push ENE and this is going to cause the frontal system to move thru the NE and this is what is bringing some isolated reports of severe weather and the rains to the region today into tomorrow.
Meanwhile we are going to be experiencing these pieces of energy ejecting with there associated troughs and fronts from the west to the ENE and this is going to keep a very unsettled pattern going across much of the region.
Due to the SWEAT and EHI being high in some locations we can not rule out an isolated tornado but the main threat from any storms will be gusty winds (in excess of 60 MPH) and large hail.
Stay tuned in case any further information were to become necessary and as always enjoy the weather -its the only weather you got!
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