The above outlook is based on the latest NAM and the latest SREF. As is usually the case we will take a look at the latest severe weather parameters in place and then take a look at the synopsis behind the map.CAPE is 500-4000 depending on where you are located...
Lifted index is 0 to -8 depending on where you are located..
SWEAT is 400 or above from Central and Eastern parts of Nebraska and Kansas, thru most of ARK, all but the NE corner & then the western half of Missouri
EHI is highest above 2 in Kansas from the NW corner to the SE corner ..drawing a slanted line from corner to corner going thru the central part of the state.
Low pressure is currently located over the northern part of the indiana/illinois border. Another low pressure is over central Minnesota. A cold front extending SW from the low near the Indiana/illinois border and a semi stationary front extending SE to a low pressure over the FL/Ga border. And then a cold front back to a complex area of multiple pieces of energy over the Rockies. These low pressure areas over Indiana /Illinois border and over Central Minnesota will move off to the East Northeast so that by tomorrow evening we have a low pressure over Eastern Mi. This will allow a complex frontal system to approach PA and there will be periods of rain along with the potential for isolated severe and garden variety type thunderstorms in PA into NY. And it is this frontal system that will also produce the severe weather across the zone. There is going to be multiple pieces of energy from the rockies that will be making there way across the country!
Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary!
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