The above outlook most likely will be preliminary as normally they are based off of the 15 Z run of the SREF along with the 18 Z NAM ..However..the 15 Z SREF run has not yet been updated at SPC site and so this is based off a blend of the 9 Z SREF and 18 Z NAM. So we may have to update this map later tonight.
However lets look at the severe parameters in place for tomorrow across the region:
CAPE is 500 to about 3000
Lift index is 0 to –8 depending on where you are located..
SWEAT index is highest above 400 from OK then North Northwest into the Dakotas.
EHI is not all that impressive with a 1 in Eastern Oklahoma, SE Missouri , West Central NY into Central PA , E MD, NW South Dakota into SE Montana.
From Central NY into Central Pa there could be an isolated tornado. The better tornado chances coincide where the greatest SWEAT and EHI is. These places are listed above so these places would have the greater potential for tornado’s. Any other regions that are in the severe zone that are NOT mentioned up above your primary severe threats will be winds in excess of 60 MPH and the potential for large hail.
So lets now look at the weather synopsis which will explain the current thinking.
Low pressure is currently over NE indiana. Extending east of this low pressure is a warm front which is moving thru PA. Extending SW is a cold front to another low pressure located over Ok. The low pressure over Indiana is going to lift off to the NNE over the Great Lakes. As this happens its going to drag a cold front towards the region so that my tomorrow evening it will be located from Erie Pa southwest to Imperial PA. It is this front moving into warmer, unstable moist air that will once again bring showers and thunderstorms along with the potential for severe thunderstorms to the zone above.
Stay tuned for more information and a further updated map later this evening!
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