The above outlook is based on the latest NAM/SREF. Lets look at the severe weather parameters that are in place.
CAPE is anywhere from 500-3500
Lift index is anywhere from 0 to –8 dependent on where you live in the zone outlined above
SWEAT index..is 400-500 from Nebraska and Kansas into SE colorado , as well as South Dakota.
EHI is above 1 from South Central TN into Northern Sections of Alabama and Mississippi.
Weather synopsis
Low pressure currently over michigan with an occluded front to a low pressure area off the SNE coast. From the low over michigan extending Southwest is a stationary front which will slowly be moving towards the east in the shape of a cold front. Timing looks as though the cold front will pass thru E PA in the overnight hours friday night.
Meanwhile this stationary front extends back to an area of low pressure over NE New Mexico and this stationary front with low pressure could spark off some showers and thunderstorms along the front.
With the SWEAT & EHI being supportive of tornados we can not rule out some tornadic activity but overall we feel the main threats will be hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH.
The low over Michigan should lift off to the ENE and this is going to keep showers and thunderstorms around the mid atlantic into the Northeast but majority of the action away from the coast should be more of the garden variety type.
Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary
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