Just looking at the 12 Z Data we continue to notice several things. First and foremost is that if you been having a break from the heat in the Northern Mid Atlantic to the Northeast-that will be changing. Guidance is really beginning to show an impressive ridge of heat pushing into the region. If you could picture it as a “wall of heat” pressing towards the region you would get a clear picture. Guidance is indicating that temperatures by wednesday will be approaching the 85-95 degree range and by thursday parts of the region could experience temperatures flirting with the mid 90s.
The above is the ECM and you can see how it just pushes the white and red colors in the 850 mb level in the +20 to +22 range.
Needless to say the GFS also agrees and we will turn to the ensembles ..
Unfortunately whenever you get heat like this into a region you have to be on “guard” for a cold front with cooler temperatures behind it. The difference in the two air masses creates turbulence in the atmosphere which will result in a severe weather outbreak at the surface.
So lets watch what happens at the 850 mb level
Now the GFS..
Notice the difference? There is a sizeable drop off in the air temperature at the 850 MB level and this translates to the surface as day time highs are back down into the 60s in the NE and 70s in the northern Mid Atlantic.
Parameters at this point such as CAPE & LI etc are pretty impressive on both the ECM/GFS. Timing of course will change as well as the parameters but it appears that as of now the best days for severe in the east are going to be Wed/Thur with the approach and the passing of the cold front.
Stay tuned for more information as we get closer to this event!
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