The above is a current satellite view of Invest 94 L . National Hurricane Center has placed this at a 40 % chance of developing. We do not presently agree with this percentage and we feel that the increase can be attributed to STEWART who wrote the past two discussions and likes to hype storms.
First when looking at the satellite above you can tell that all the convection is to the east northeast of this system. This makes sense as that is where the best convergence and divergence currently is.
Another problem that this system is facing is the broad, elongated size that it currently has. You can see this by looking at the vorticity image that we have along with this discussion.
And still yet one more problem that this system is facing is that there is still dry air near the center and this is getting into the mid levels of the system. The dry air image is also included with this post.
In order for this system to develop several things must happen:
1. The center must either redevelop underneath the convection off to the ENE of it or pull the convection closer to its center. This leads to #2.
2. The center of circulation needs to tighten up. It would accomplish this by the above mentioned in #1.
Currently at the present time shear is not an issue with the development because it is only 5-10 knots. This is not detrimental to this system's development.
With all the above mentioned & shear being supportable we do feel that this has a 30 % chance at development but any development is going to be slow to occur.
Stay tuned for more information should it be needed!
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