Next Outbreak On The Horizon

Folks we have been talking about this for a couple days now and we will continue to talk about it up until the time the event begins and then until the day that it ends. We were probably the first weather outlet to start talking about this outbreak. While the details still remain sketchy due to timing issues etc ..we are 100% confident a severe weather outbreak is going to occur. The details that are lacking at this point is the exact areas and the specifics of wind, hail etc.

So lets get into it shall we? We are going to look at the ECM or European Computer Model first.

You continue to see some important things on the models today. One, you can see the southerly flow out ahead of the trough. Two you can see the slow progression of the trough to the east. Three, you can also see that it is more then one piece of energy that is going to be responsible for this outbreak.

The above is the GFS ensemble means and you can see here as well that it is more then one piece of energy that is going to contribute to this outbreak and you can see the slow progression to the east, southerly flow out ahead of it as well. This agrees that this will eventually culminate in the east. The operational GFS is faster with the timing then the actual ensembles but this is probably attributed to the fact that the GFS is a progressive biased model.

So what this is implying is that we could be looking at an outbreak in the central plains and the midwest starting sometime in the sunday to monday time frame and perhaps ending in the east around thursday-friday?

Models continue to advertise some very steep CAPE values of 5000-6000. SWEAT indexes in the 500-600 range. Remember only 400 is needed for potential tornados. Ample lift in the atmosphere. We are going to show you these images because its hard to imagine but lift index is –10 to –12.

Even at 108 hrs out already we see this taking place..

So the first area you are going to be starting to seen being talked about is the midwest and the central plains states. Keep in mind this will eventually be moving east..perhaps not of the same extreme but its too early to do anything other then speculate. However, rest assured that Severe Weather season is about to pick up starting next week!

Stay tuned for more information!