This outlook map is different from the standard outlook map that we issue. The yellow color is the severe weather zone and the red shading is area that needs to be monitored a bit more. Explain further down.
Lets look at the severe weather parameters & once again we will be mainly blending the guidance of the NAM/SREF.
CAPE is anywhere from 500-4000 depending on where you reside
Lift Index is anywhere from 0 to -8 depending on where you reside
SWEAT index is as high as 600t this is in parts of Tx into Central Ok. So this area could be considered an area for potential tornado's based off the SWEAT along with the other parameters in place.
EHI -based off the EHI we could add E OK, NW ARK, SW Missouri with an EHI at around 2 to 2.5. We can also add into that list western Ky into North and western TN as they are around 1 to 2 on the Energy helicity index. So those last to locations of TN & W KY would be more isolated.
Weather Synopsis
As guidance shows us there will be a broad upper level trough situated over the central part of the USA. We have been talking about this trough with each and every severe weather outlook. Currently there is a low pressure over south central KS with an occluded front bending north and then towards the NW to a low pressure over SW North Dakota. From the low pressure over KS there is a weak cold front extending to the southwest of that low. There is also a warm front in this complex frontal system thru eastern Iowa bending southeast towards eastern TN. By tomorrow evening this warm front will continue to lift north and east and be located over SW Ohio with a vertically stacked area of low pressure over Minnesota (central) with a front trailing down to a low pressure over the panhandle of Tx.
In addition to all the above will be the mid level lapse rates which will be quite efficient at 7.0-8.0. This in combination with day time heating along with dewpoints in the 70 degree range and shear of at least 40-50 knots , CAPE values of 4000 and the upper level trough should trigger off more in the way of widespread severe weather.
Now the reason that there is an area of red and has to be monitored for another cycle of guidance is because the Mid Level Lapse rates are lower then the other area in yellow. Also there is less shear..So at the present time this area may see severe weather in the form of winds and hail but it will all be dependent on those two parameters. Parameters such as CAPE in those areas is anywhere from 500-2500 so it is lower CAPE and lower shear and midlevel lapse rates as present guidance is showing. So we will monitor that region for possibility of being included in the yellow zone. However with lack of SWEAT and lack of EHI those areas would not have to worry about a tornado risk..though we always say that one can not be ruled out and this could be the case over the Carolinas where the SWEAT is at 400.
There is the potential for more severe weather after this but we feel in order to be the most accurate because alot of people depend on us for there weather that we should only take it one day at a time, especially considering that once you go beyond 1 day you start getting into the guidance not agreeing with the overall set up etc.
Stay tuned for more information and we will keep you updated as necessary!
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